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曾准确预测三届总统大选 AI系统认为特朗普将胜出

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2016-10-29 18:15:16 转载来源: 网络整理/侵权必删

北京时间10月29日消息,据外媒报道,还有两周美国大选就要正式拉开帷幕了,今天又有AI系统出来插科打诨。这个已经成功准确预测三届总统大选的“家伙”这次更看好特朗普入主白宫

北京时间10月29日消息,据外媒报道,还有两周美国大选就要正式拉开帷幕了,今天又有AI系统出来插科打诨。这个已经成功准确预测三届总统大选的“家伙”这次更看好特朗普入主白宫。

AI系统认为特朗普将胜出:曾准确预测三届总统大选

这个名为MogIA的系统是印度新创公司Genic.ai开发的,它从谷歌、Facebook、Twitter和YouTube上收集了2000万个数据点,随后人工智能对这些数据进行分析并给出总统大选的预测结果。

这套AI系统诞生于2004年,因此它随时间流逝在不断变聪明。此前,它在驴象之争中已经成功做出过三次预测。

这次,虽然在民调中一直落后于希拉里,但特拉普却成了MogIA眼中的香饽饽,他的胜率甚至已经比2008年时的奥巴马高出了25%。

“如果特朗普输掉了竞选,那么过去十二年来的参与数据预测系统可能就会面临崩塌。”该公司创始人雷说道。“如果从我掌握的数据来看,希拉里根本不能沾沾自喜。”

不过,雷也承认AI系统现在识别“反话”的能力有限,因此各大网络平台上用户的发言很有可能会被误读。即使有大量网民在特朗普的Twitter账号下互动,也不代表人们会支持他,今年的大选实在是太特别了。此外,今年的选民中,使用社交网络的比例可大大高于此前的三届。

由于数据非常公开,使用社交网络来预测总统大选结果近些年来变得越来越流行。今年9月,美国东北大学政治学系助理教授尼克发表了一篇论文,该论文展示了他如何利用AI分析2012年大选前Twitter上出现的1亿条推文。经过实验尼克发现,对推文分析后得出的结果基本与当年的选情吻合。

“这些结果不但能告诉我们谁最有可能获胜,还给我们提供了一个探寻选民到底在想什么的方式,同时我们还能知道他们做出这样选择的动机。”尼克说道。

雷表示如果能获得更多数据(比如进入谷歌的各种设备),他的AI系统水平会更高,而且还能知道人们都在想什么。

标签: 准确预测 三届 总统 大选 AI 系统 认为 特朗 胜出


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