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Cake\Http\BaseApplication::pluginBootstrap() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 182
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Cake\ORM\Table::getSchema() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 513
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Cake\ORM\Table::find() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 1263
App\Controller\NewsController::action_() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 6437
App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
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App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
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Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317

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Cake\ORM\Table::getSchema() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 513
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Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317

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Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
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Cake\I18n\Middleware\LocaleSelectorMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/I18n/Middleware/LocaleSelectorMiddleware.php, line 61
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Cake\Cache\Cache::write() - CORE/src/Cache/Cache.php, line 275
App\Controller\NewsController::action_() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 6766
App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
App\Controller\NewsController::action_cache() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5493
App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
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Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
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Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
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Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
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Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
Cake\I18n\Middleware\LocaleSelectorMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/I18n/Middleware/LocaleSelectorMiddleware.php, line 61
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73

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                E_USER_WARNING
            );

Cake\Cache\Cache::write() - CORE/src/Cache/Cache.php, line 275
App\Controller\NewsController::action_() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 6766
App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
App\Controller\NewsController::action_cache() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5493
App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
App\Controller\NewsController::view() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 3663
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
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Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
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Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 161

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App\Controller\NewsController::view() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 3822
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 77
Cake\Http\Middleware\CsrfProtectionMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/Http/Middleware/CsrfProtectionMiddleware.php, line 164
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
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Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 161

从美团变局　看C2C2C模式的瓦解

互联网 2015-10-18 19:57:03 转载来源: 网络整理/侵权必删

文/人造天堂我不知道风是在哪一个方向吹，这是徐志摩1928年写的诗。诗人是敏感的，好诗是跨时代的，拿来形容2015年秋天的O2O行业，也很贴切

文/人造天堂

我不知道风是在哪一个方向吹，这是徐志摩1928年写的诗。诗人是敏感的，好诗是跨时代的，拿来形容2015年秋天的O2O行业，也很贴切。

作为一个注脚，我们也不知道美团E轮融到没有，融了多少。成语扑朔迷离出自《木兰诗》：“雄兔脚扑朔，雌兔眼迷离。双兔傍地走，安能辨我是雌雄？”美团近期像公兔，频繁融资相关的动作及架构调整，其中也有融资的因素。而资本像雌兔，估值的眼光变地迷离。双方一直幕后互动，但迟迟没有最终的结果。美团E轮融资，几个月来，不停地空穴来风。这些风也不知都是谁放的。

投资界有句老话：如果一个案子，要经过复杂的计算，才知道盈亏，这本身就是不值得投资的证明。同理，融资成谜本身就是融资难的证明。直到整出美团点评合并这个大新闻。但融资的问题还是没有最终解决。

怎么就变难了呢？美团的GMV数据仍然在打滚地翻番，王兴有神童标志的大脑门，是知名的连续创业者，都是资本追捧的元素，美团到目前四轮融资，金额也依次翻番，D轮达7亿美元，都得心应手。O2O发展到今日，业界也已经不怀疑其长期钱景。

在我看来，问题的根源在于，资本主导的C2C模式(copy to China)，或可以加个report to capital的后缀，简称C2C2C。不夸张地说，中国互联网今天几乎所有的一切，都是拜其所赐。但以美国股市上个财季为拐点，显示该模式已经越走越窄，甚至穷途末路，成为中国互联网产业的绊脚石。美团就是曲型的C2C2C项目，王兴过往的项目也是，自然也和该模式一起沉浮。

直观来看，美团的巨额亏损和融资额度，膨胀一个数量级，击穿了投资界的心理底线。但美团不是第一天运行这个巨亏的模式，之前的投资人应该预料到今天。可能问题在于，受美国股市上个财季的影响，投资界的心态发生了微妙的变化。

0416410262_meitu_2.jpg

7月下旬发布的这一财季，以及整个财年，普通也不普通。集中发生了几件不算大，但影响深远的事。亚马逊自创立以来一直微亏，终于实现盈利。其市值已超过沃尔玛。Google一直对资本市场很傲骄，近期停掉一些创新项目，强化传统的绩效管理，表现出妥协。美国投资者还对中国的O2O概念投了反对票。

对此有各种解读。值得注意的是，亚马逊的云计算业务，尽管只占营收的7%，但美国投资者对其估值较高。而在产业层面，移动互联网的前沿，美国资本市场的认知落后较多，还停留在传统IT式的技术驱动阶段，对O2O普遍不感冒，而移动互联网早已经是用户需求驱动，改造人的关系。

这无形中也宣告C2C2C模式的衰败。过去C2C2C一直运行得很好，有两个前提：1. 美国产业前沿领先中国，复制的模式确实反映未来的需求；2. 本土风投和资本市场发育不足，依赖同样领先全球的美国资本市场，自然也倾向在美国业已成功的模式。实际上两国产业的基本面早就存在差异，但赴美上市，也要千方百计包装成美国投资者能理解的故事。

两个前提今后都存疑了。以中国的用户规模，前沿的优势将进一步扩大，也就越发超出美资本市场的认知。中国互联网已经达到的融资额度，并且将进一步扩大，更加剧这种信息不对称的不确定性。当然硅谷仍然在源源不断地创新，但复制到中国，或者没有群众基础，或者有，也没有以前那么大的时间差。做不出业绩，资本市场最终还是不会认的。

中国互联网产业终将回归本土资本。但中短期内，本土资本市场很难有起色。目前国内创投机构据说已经过万家，但普遍质量堪忧。近来新三板很火，但按这个故事过去的尿性，也是要玩坏的节奏。中短期恐怕只能指望战略资本，会有越来越多的小伙伴被BAT包养。

具体到美团王兴，是C2C2C模式最好的操盘手，很可能没有之一。校内、饭否同属于社交网络，但和团购业务相差甚远，唯一的交集，都是正在潮头的美国模式。校内败在资本上，同样是海归，长于投资C2C2C项目的陈一舟。饭否败在政策上，如今美团又遇到融资瓶颈，也都是C2C2C模式天然的结构性缺陷。

C2C2C模式最大的弊端，是短期选择。各种资本业态，从天使到PE、IPO，铁路警察各管一段，只要能交接下一棒，并不关心这孩子最后，能不能生出来，长大成人。这样的心态影响到孩子的亲生父母（创业者）也如出一辙，只求按时完成投资人规定的数字，就像一个金牌销售。王兴一直是C2C资本的优秀员工，业绩很好。但当他把数字刷到史无前例的新高，资本Boss们却说，sorry i dont understand，要改看基本面了。

电影《黑衣人》里，参加外星管理人局的考试，威尔・史密斯问我们来干什么，一个军队精英说：我知道，我们要做best of best of best。以王兴为代表的C2C2C创业者如出一辙。今后互联网创业者先要想清楚：我们来干什么。

标签: 美团变局 C2C2C 模式瓦解