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Cake\Log\Engine\FileLog::log() - CORE/src/Log/Engine/FileLog.php, line 140
Cake\Log\Log::write() - CORE/src/Log/Log.php, line 392
Cake\Log\Log::warning() - CORE/src/Log/Log.php, line 477
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DebugKit\ToolbarService::isEnabled() - ROOT/vendor/cakephp/debug_kit/src/ToolbarService.php, line 105
DebugKit\Plugin::bootstrap() - ROOT/vendor/cakephp/debug_kit/src/Plugin.php, line 48
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::pluginBootstrap() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 182
Cake\Http\Server::bootstrap() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 111
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 79
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SplFileObject::fwrite() - [internal], line ??
Cake\Cache\Engine\FileEngine::set() - CORE/src/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 141
Cake\Database\Schema\CachedCollection::describe() - CORE/src/Database/Schema/CachedCollection.php, line 85
Cake\ORM\Table::getSchema() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 513
Cake\ORM\Query::addDefaultTypes() - CORE/src/ORM/Query.php, line 290
Cake\ORM\Query::__construct() - CORE/src/ORM/Query.php, line 184
Cake\ORM\Table::query() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 1702
Cake\ORM\Table::find() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 1263
App\Controller\NewsController::action_() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 6437
App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
App\Controller\NewsController::action_cache() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5625
App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
App\Controller\NewsController::view() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 3226
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317

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Cake\Cache\Engine\FileEngine::set() - CORE/src/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 141
Cake\I18n\TranslatorRegistry::get() - CORE/src/I18n/TranslatorRegistry.php, line 206
Cake\I18n\I18n::getTranslator() - CORE/src/I18n/I18n.php, line 148
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App\Controller\NewsController::view() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 3420
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 77
Cake\Http\Middleware\CsrfProtectionMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/Http/Middleware/CsrfProtectionMiddleware.php, line 164
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
Cake\I18n\Middleware\LocaleSelectorMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/I18n/Middleware/LocaleSelectorMiddleware.php, line 61
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
Cake\Http\Middleware\BodyParserMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/Http/Middleware/BodyParserMiddleware.php, line 157
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73

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SplFileObject::fwrite() - [internal], line ??
Cake\Cache\Engine\FileEngine::set() - CORE/src/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 141
Cake\Database\Schema\CachedCollection::describe() - CORE/src/Database/Schema/CachedCollection.php, line 85
Cake\ORM\Table::getSchema() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 513
Cake\ORM\Query::addDefaultTypes() - CORE/src/ORM/Query.php, line 290
Cake\ORM\Query::__construct() - CORE/src/ORM/Query.php, line 184
Cake\ORM\Table::query() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 1702
Cake\ORM\Table::find() - CORE/src/ORM/Table.php, line 1263
App\Controller\NewsController::action_() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 6426
App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
App\Controller\NewsController::action_cache() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5625
App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
App\Controller\NewsController::view() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 3436
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317

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Cake\Cache\Cache::write() - CORE/src/Cache/Cache.php, line 266
App\Controller\NewsController::action_() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 6766
App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
App\Controller\NewsController::action_cache() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5625
App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
App\Controller\NewsController::view() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 3634
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 77
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Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
Cake\I18n\Middleware\LocaleSelectorMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/I18n/Middleware/LocaleSelectorMiddleware.php, line 61
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73

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            );

Cake\Cache\Cache::write() - CORE/src/Cache/Cache.php, line 275
App\Controller\NewsController::action_() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 6766
App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
App\Controller\NewsController::action_cache() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5625
App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
App\Controller\NewsController::view() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 3634
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 77
Cake\Http\Middleware\CsrfProtectionMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/Http/Middleware/CsrfProtectionMiddleware.php, line 164
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
Cake\I18n\Middleware\LocaleSelectorMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/I18n/Middleware/LocaleSelectorMiddleware.php, line 61
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
Cake\Http\Middleware\BodyParserMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/Http/Middleware/BodyParserMiddleware.php, line 157

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            $this->_File->fflush();

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Cake\Cache\Cache::write() - CORE/src/Cache/Cache.php, line 266
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App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
App\Controller\NewsController::action_cache() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5625
App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
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Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
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Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
Cake\I18n\Middleware\LocaleSelectorMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/I18n/Middleware/LocaleSelectorMiddleware.php, line 61
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                E_USER_WARNING
            );

Cake\Cache\Cache::write() - CORE/src/Cache/Cache.php, line 275
App\Controller\NewsController::action_() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 6766
App\Controller\NewsController::get_data() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5701
App\Controller\NewsController::action_cache() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5625
App\Controller\NewsController::cache_action() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 5281
App\Controller\NewsController::view() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 3663
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 539
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::handle() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 140
Cake\Controller\ControllerFactory::invoke() - CORE/src/Controller/ControllerFactory.php, line 115
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::handle() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 317
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 77
Cake\Http\Middleware\CsrfProtectionMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/Http/Middleware/CsrfProtectionMiddleware.php, line 164
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
Cake\I18n\Middleware\LocaleSelectorMiddleware::process() - CORE/src/I18n/Middleware/LocaleSelectorMiddleware.php, line 61
Cake\Http\Runner::handle() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 73
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亚马逊为何在中国搞不过京东

业界动态 2015-07-29 19:51:37 转载来源: 网络整理/侵权必删

在迎来20周年生日之际，亚马逊市值达到2466亿美元（按7月24日收盘价计算），这的确是一个值得纪念的时刻。“不赚钱”的逻辑如何从被质疑到获认可，2015年起财报对三大业务进行重列的意义何在，亚马逊中国与中国电商（特别是京东）竞争的前景会怎样？不盈利是一种战略亚马逊将不盈利作为长期战略

在迎来20周年生日之际，亚马逊市值达到2466亿美元（按7月24日收盘价计算），这的确是一个值得纪念的时刻。

“不赚钱”的逻辑如何从被质疑到获认可，2015年起财报对三大业务进行重列的意义何在，亚马逊中国与中国电商（特别是京东）竞争的前景会怎样？

不盈利是一种战略

亚马逊将不盈利作为长期战略。具体来讲就是尽可能地扩大规模，不惜牺牲利润。这是典型的“top-line growth”战略。过去的十年是亚马逊快速增长的十年，营收的年均复合增长率达29.1%。2014财年，亚马逊营收已达890亿美元。

不过，2011年以来亚马逊的营收增速开始大幅回落，并且远远低于阿里、京东的水平。阿里2011～2014营收平均增速75%。

某些中国公司喜欢拿亚马逊的不盈利说事儿，动不动就说“亚马逊还亏损呢！”其实，亚马逊只是不追求盈利，却从来没有肆无忌惮地亏损。

2004年以来，亚马逊仅在2012年和2014年出现财年亏损，净亏损分别占当期营收的千分之一和千分之三，而某些中概公司净亏损动辄超过营收！

在不断优化、降低成本的同时亚马逊没有象其它美国公司那样攫取高额利润，而是以相对低的价格向市场提供产品及服务，尽可能地扩张规模。所以亚马逊的毛利润率一直低于30%。

2010年以来，亚马逊在研发和物流方面的投入规模不断扩大，基本上是可着毛利润花。于是报表上的“net income”总在微盈和微亏之间徘徊。把经营利润“吃光用尽”的模式曾倍受质疑，如今已收到贝索斯想要达到的效果：在电商领域一马当先并强有力地冲击着传统零售。在亚马逊的攻势下，百思买、巴诺书店已经回天无力。今天亚马逊的市值超越沃尔玛是历史性的，说明多数投资人终于认同了贝索斯的理念。

亚马逊虽然不追求盈利，甚至主动亏损，但贝索斯却非常重视现金流，他说“股票价值是未来现金流的现值，而不是未来盈利的现值。我们最终的财务指标，我最想达成的目标就是自由现金流。”（出自2004年致股东的信）

2015年Q1，亚马逊净利润只有3500万美元，经营活动净现金流为4.98亿美元。

而在截止到6月30日的12个月中，亚马逊净亏损1.88亿美元，经营活动产生的净现金流入高达89.8亿美元，期未现金及等价物储备达102.7亿美元。充沛的经营现金流强有力地支持着对外扩张，截止到2015年6月30日亚马逊在过去12个月的投资活动净现金流出为66.3亿美元。

众所周知，编制财务报表的基本原则是权责发生制。即期内实现的收入或应付的费用，不论相关款项是否收到或付出都作为本期的收入和费用处理。贝索斯的观点则更接近收付实现制，收款以落袋为安，付款能拖就拖，许多中国老板也是这样想、这样做的！

重列三大业务的用意：云计算业务成估值功臣

在财报中如何对主营业务进行分类，乃至各项业务的名称都大有学问，对估值会产生直接的影响。

从2015年Q1开始，亚马逊把主营业务分为北美分部、国际分部和AWS分部进行独立核算。即按照营收与费用匹配的原则，把营收及履约费用、研发及内容费用、行政管理费用分配到这三个分部。

2015年上半年，北美业务分部营收272亿美元，同比增长25%。同期国际业务分部的营收为153亿美元，同比增幅仅为1%。因此上，北美分部营收在总营收中的份额升到59%（2014年同期为56%）。

首次独立披露的AWS（Amazon Web Services）业务，被称为亚马逊云计算，就是以Web服务的形式向企业提供IT基础设施服务。在全球扩张的道路上，亚马逊本身就是云计算的重度用户。2006年8月推出AWS之今，亚马逊成为举世瞩目的云计算服务提供商，客户总数超过100万（分布在190个国家和地区），2015年前六个月营收33.9亿美元，占比7%。

与中国投资人不同，美国人在二级市场不做VC，说白了就是不为概念估值。而在A股市场人人都是VC，认为自己能看到标的公司五年、十年以后的蓝图。所以，在美国即使是苹果也得拿销售了多少iPhone、多少iMac，拿实实在在营收、净利润说事儿。A股上市公司开个媒体沟通会、放个PPT，甚至改名为“匹凸匹”都能让股价翻番。应当说美国投资人的保守是有道理的，可以大大降低被忽悠的风险。

亚马逊单独披露云计算(AWS)的营收，尽管占比只有7%，但资本市场对这块业务的认知度大幅提高。AWS信息的披露，为亚马逊市值突破2400亿美元，历史性地超越沃尔玛做出极大的贡献。最近讨论亚马逊估值的文章，把云计算业务视为“功臣”。

2015年上前六个月，亚马逊三个分部的经营利润（不计股权激励）合计为17.8亿美元（同比增加96%），其中69%来自北美分部、37%业自AWS分部（两者合计超过100%是因为国际分部亏损9500万美元）。

亚马逊在北美以外的多个国家成为最大的电商，如英国、法国、日本、印度等。但在“好啃的骨头啃光”之后，国际业务遇到了瓶颈。2015年前六个月，国际分部营收的同比增幅仅为1%，经营亏损却增加171%。这种情况下，只能对AWS分部寄予厚望了。

不客气地说，亚马逊营收增长并不理想，AWS短期内难当大任，接近2500亿美元的市值恐怕会成为阶段性“顶峰”。

京东与亚马逊（中国）：青出于蓝而胜于蓝

亚马逊进入中国后，沿用了它在美国的成功经验（比如自建现代化物流体系），这或许是亚马逊在中国存活下来的重要原因，而与京东竞争的成败，是亚马逊中国能否活得好的关键。

亚马逊强大数字出版和AWS业务是京东没有的，但两家还是有许多相似，京东的发展战略与策略对亚马逊（美国）有诸多对标之处。实际上，在京东赴美上市前，投资人曾参照亚马逊给京东估值。作为电商，它们有两点格外一致，而京东执行得甚至更加彻底。

首先是重营收、轻利润的策略。亚马逊经营利润始终为正，利润率却越来越低。京东经营利润率始终为负数（有些过了）。

但是，看看京东和亚马逊所取得的市场份额，前者的策略显然更适合中国国情。

其次是对物流服务的重视。高效的物流体系不仅可以提升用户购物体验，还可通过为第三方卖家提供服务获得收益，将物流体系从成本中心变为利润中心。在这一点上，京东其实是美国亚马逊的学生。

不过与亚马逊中国相比，京东更加倚重自建自营物流。截止到2014年末，京东拥有7大物流中心和分布在40个城市的123个仓库（总面积超过200万平方米）。京东还运营着3210个配送站，覆盖全国范围内的1862个区县。快递员、保管员、客股人员分别达到3.5万、1.26万和7758名。凭借强大的物流体系，京东可为134个地区提供当天送达的“211限时达”服务并在另外866个地区提供次日达的配送服务。

亚马逊则是“两条脚走路”。截止到2014年末，亚马逊在中国拥有13个运营中心，配送区域覆盖全国近3000个城市区县；同时亚马逊与四通一达、顺丰、全峰、宅急送等快递公司达成合作。在自营与第三方物流的共同支持下，亚马逊当日达及次日达的服务覆盖了1400个城市区县。在数量上超过京东，但口碑方面尚有差距。

亚马逊进入中国市场已经十多年了，却一直徘徊在第二阵营。日前，亚马逊国际业务总负责人迭戈・皮亚琴尼对媒体表示：错过了不能再错过，亚马逊在中国“绝对是可以更激进”。

一方面亚马逊足够优秀、足够了解中国，而且已有大批拥趸，不存在被挤出中国的可能性。但另一方面，阿里、京东已经太强大，亚马逊讨不到什么便宜。

土洋电商将长期对峙下去。

标签: 亚马逊何在中国不过京东