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普华永道:“宝类”高收益率或不可持续

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2014-04-26 18:57:57 转载来源: 网络整理/侵权必删

张华君普华永道昨日发布《2013年中国十大上市银行业绩分析》显示,2013年中国最大的十家上市银行(下称“十大上市银行”)运行平稳,资产负债规模稳步扩大,盈利保持增长。然而,这些银行的信贷资产质量下行趋势明显,不良贷款余额和不良贷款率“双升”

张华君

普华永道昨日发布《2013年中国十大上市银行业绩分析》显示,2013年中国最大的十家上市银行(下称“十大上市银行”)运行平稳,资产负债规模稳步扩大,盈利保持增长。然而,这些银行的信贷资产质量下行趋势明显,不良贷款余额和不良贷款率“双升”。

而在过去一年里,由于互联网金融产品的入市以及理财产品的发展,银行存款的利率优势逐步减弱,进而对银行存款形成一定冲击。面对存款纷纷搬家至互联网的局面,商业银行也陆续与基金公司开展合作,各种高收益的“宝类”产品横空出世。

“新的金融业参与者对传统银行业的资金成本造成增加,各种‘宝类’产品出现的时候,资金最终还是回到银行体系中,只是在名称上由‘存款’变成了‘同业’。”普华永道中国银行业和资本市场部主管合伙人梁国威昨日在接受《第一财经日报》记者采访时表示。

梁国威对本报记者称,金融产品在短期的竞争中相互抬价。相对于当前的利率水平,一些理财产品在出现高回报的时候(如7%的高收益),实际上是有银行的让利在里面,但这种让利不能持续,利率将会缓慢下滑。

2014年不良率还将持续上升

报告称,十大上市银行2013年末的不良贷款余额4494.09亿元,较 2012年末增长19.47%;不良贷款率也上升0.06个百分点至0.99%。不良贷款余额和不良贷款率“双升”,显示出信贷资产质量下行趋势明显。而银行业信贷资产质量有所下滑,表示经济增长减缓的负面效应向银行传导。

“在今年不良贷款存量增长的情况下,我们预期2014年不良率还将持续上升,上升速度取决于中国经济整体放缓速度、房地产价格走势以及中小微企业在不同程度上的金融问题能否在未来几年得到合理解决。”普华永道中国金融服务部主管合伙人容显文昨日表示。

对此,梁国威强调,在金融条件放宽的情况下,贷款核销及不良贷款转让已成为银行化解不良贷款的重要渠道。核销确实已经加速,银行同时也在打包出售,而现在很多投资银行和资产管理公司也在吸收从银行释放出来的不良贷款。

值得注意的是,自2011年开始,十大上市银行平均逾期率与平均不良率的变化开始出现不同趋势,逾期率开始明显高于不良率水平。报告称,截至2013年末,两者之间的差距扩大,进一步呈现出背离的趋势。不良率的上升速度明显慢于逾期率的上升速度,介于两者之间的时间差,预计不良贷款余额将上升。

存款增速显著放缓

在互联网金融浪潮的冲击下,2013年银行存款增速有所放缓。报告显示,2013年年末十大上市银行的存款总额为65.07万亿元,同比增长9.53%。除中国银行和中信银行之外,八家上市银行的存款增速均呈现放缓趋势。

“互联网金融直接冲击了商业银行的存款、财富管理等传统业务。在今后的一段时间内商业银行资金成本上升、利润空间压缩的压力依然存在。”梁国威表示,但考虑到整体银行业的网点规模及资金雄厚根基,其多年来积累的优势在短期内仍不可动摇,使它们在传统对公对私业务等方面依然占有独特的优势。

梁国威称,互联网金融正在倒推商业银行的改革,商业银行要以互联网思维和技术来做金融,提升自身管理水平,优化定价能力,从而在竞争中稳定其存款来源,并在产品开拓方面寻得突破。

标签: 普华 永道 宝类 收益率 不可 持续


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